Welcome to the flght 666 on Absurd Air—sit back and enjoy the ride but first of all make sure your seat belt is securely fastened and your tray table is in an upright and locked position.
Welcome to the flght 666 on Absurd Air—sit back and enjoy the ride but first of all make sure your seat belt is securely fastened and your tray table is in an upright and locked position.
Today I turn 50 - well that's what the calendar says. Optimists tell me I should look forward not back but such symbolic milestones make one pause for reflection. What do my fifty years amount to? Have I really accomplished anything of significance? As a numbers guy I have been reflecting on my 18,262 days or is it 438,288 hours or 26,297,280 minutes?
First the mundane:
- 11 houses/apartments in 7 cities and 2 countries
- 7 employers (never been fired - yet)
- born the same year as the President and Princess Di
- born the same day and year as Dan Marino - his passing arm beats mine
- born the same day as Prince Harry!
Now the vain:
- 56 countries visited (slept in all of them; also slept in every English and Scottish county - the old ones before the 70's realignment and yes I have slept in Rutland and Renfrewshire)
- 2,742 plane flights through 188 different airports covering approximately 3.6 million miles
- 264 different golf courses played on four continents - balls lost on all of 'em
- 4 books written (not sure if any were read but who cares!) - the ultimate ego trip!
All fun stuff but not very meaningful. But you know what? I feel great - here's why:
- I have had some wonderful experiences courtesy of other people and that's what makes each day seem special (even the shitty ones!)
- For my first 37 years I was blessed with two wonderful parents - they left too soon but not before they did their job right (in my opinion)
- I have spent 62% of my life loving my darling wife (well the first few % may have been lusting after, then I added the loving to the equation) and after 31 years together, 26 of them married I look forward to many more years of lusting - sorry loving. Fun fact: Yesterday (14 Sep) marked the 31st anniversary of our first date, the day before my 19th birthday!
- 18 years as a parent - a beautiful and intelligent daughter now navigating here way through her freshman year at college and a beautiful (Dad's can say that) and intelligent son in his junior year in high school. Who cares what I accomplish going forward, the pressure's off me. I get way more satisfaction from their accomplishments than I do from any of my own. That's the best bit of all this. My hope for the future is that one day they will remember their Dad in the same way I remember my parents - I can ask for no more.
So with a half-century under my belt (well actually its hanging over the top of my belt) its off on the second half of the journey and I can't wait.
Let's rock n' roll...
September 7th, 2001 - New York City
I hate being in New York on a Friday afternoon. The traffic is horrendous. By three in the afternoon the streets are gridlocked as people head home early; the masses throng the subway stations, limo’s heading for the airport make their way across Manhattan at a snails pace and the affluent seek to escape to their mansions in the Hamptons. The ride to La Guardia is a lottery, taking anywhere from one to three hours and almost always screwing up my journey home after a long week on the road. To cap it all I am sitting in a draughty booth in the monolithic and soul less Jacob Javitz Convention Center waiting to give a speech at a computer conference. Judging by the sparse crowd in the exhibition hall most of the delegates have already made tracks for home or the nearest bar.
Well I was right. An hour later I face an attentive audience of four people gathered to hear my pearls of wisdom—why did I ever agree to do this speech? It remains a mystery to me; never agree to be the final speaker at any event, particularly on a Friday afternoon. Still, as they say, the show must go on and I try to do the best job I can over the next ninety minutes. At the end all four people clap enthusiastically and stay behind to talk further—they probably felt sorry for me. I quickly make my excuses with stories of planes to catch and jump in a taxi to the airport. Ninety minutes later the taxi pulls up in front of the terminal at LaGuardia and I am in good time for my flight—which is about the first piece of good luck I have had this week. We take off only fifty minutes late, which counts as an on-time departure for New York on a Friday evening. Our route takes us initially to the east before the plane makes a 180 degree turn to the south and west and we head west over the southern end of Manhattan passing almost over the top of the twin towers of the World Trade Center below.
The benefits of frequent flyer elite status manifest themselves in my first class seat and the couple of gin and tonics I sip on the ride back to Cleveland. We land around 7.30pm and I make it home just after eight. I’m still in a pretty foul mood at the wasted day as I walk through the door. Donna senses my grumpiness but thoughtfully provides another cocktail and suggests we sit on the patio, as it is a beautiful late summer evening. I acquiesce. No sooner have I sat down and taken my first slurp when four people jump out from behind the wall in front of me. Stunned surprise washes over me as my best friend (and best man) from England, his wife and two children emerge grinning, to join us on the patio. The reason for their surprise appearance is that next Saturday the 15th I turn 40. I think they are here to celebrate or though it could be gloat at my aged state. My mood brightens considerably and many more drinks are consumed for which a price is paid the next morning.
September 10th, 2001—California
After a relaxing weekend, Monday dawns and I head off the airport and board the morning flight to San Francisco; an afternoon meeting beckons and then a short flight to Los Angeles followed by another meeting Tuesday morning and a return to Cleveland that afternoon—leaving plenty of time to celebrate my four score years in style. All goes smoothly and I make to the Torrance Marriott just south of LAX for dinner on Monday night. Sleep comes easily.
September 11th, 2001 - Los Angeles
The next morning dawns bright and clear and my 6am alarm call shatters my slumber; as is my habit I pick up the television remote and switch on what I think is CNN. In my semi-conscious state I only half notice the pictures showing smoke emerging from a skyscraper. I reach for the remote certain that I have tuned into the wrong channel and am watching a rerun of the Towering Inferno. At that moment my mobile rings. It’s Donna and she’s shouting at me: “Have you seen what’s happening in New York?” I mumble an incoherent response and she goes on: “a plane has crashed into the World Trade Center.” I slowly begin to comprehend and put down the remote as my eyes start to focus on the pictures on the screen. At that moment I hear the reporter shout that another plane has just hit the South Tower. It’s 9.02am on the east coast and it’s September 11th 2001.
For the next hour I stare transfixed at the events unravelling just a few blocks from where I was just four days earlier. At 9.58am the South Tower collapses; this can’t be real—but tragically it is. Just a minute later I head downstairs for a breakfast meeting at which little business is discussed. Our conversation consists of a series of incredulous comments and speculation as to what is happening—terrorism is near the top of our list. After breakfast I return to my room to hear that the North Tower has just collapsed. What the hell is happening?
I regroup with my colleagues and we debate as to whether our meeting will actually happen. Having no means of contacting the client we head over to the offices. The meeting does take place after a fashion; however no one is really paying much attention. After about half an hour we all jump as a loud bang is heard from outside; given our proximity to LAX we decide to call it a day. I make my way back to the airport still thinking about catching my flight back to Cleveland. The radio quickly disabuses me of this notion as it reports that the FAA has grounded all planes and reports that another plane has crashed into the Pentagon possibly en route to a different target—The White House, and another one has apparently crashed in Pennsylvania. Donna calls again and pleads with me not to go near the airport as it maybe a target – again more in disbelief than anything else I head in the opposite direction and try and call some colleagues who I know are in meetings somewhere in Manhattan; however the circuits are all busy.
The rest of the day unfolds like a Tom Clancy novel. Later in the afternoon I check into the LAX Marriott rationalising that with no planes still in the air I should be pretty safe. The area around LAX is like a ghost town. Very few cars are on the roads and of course no planes are moving at the airport. In the early evening I drive down to one of my favourite Irish bars in Hermosa Beach. Hermosa Beach is a classic California beach town, pretty girls, sun, sand and the usual accoutrements of California life. As I sat nursing the first of quite a few beers, President Bush is addressing the nation. Unlike most Presidential broadcasts the bar went completely quiet as everyone listened intently. As the President finished a subdued round of applause broke out and whispered murmerings of American resolve filled the bar as the magnitude of what had happened began to set in. Estimates of the death toll range as high as ten thousand and as a mixture of news, rumour and ill-informed speculation poured out of New York, heart rending stories of people calling their loved ones on their mobile phones from the airplanes or the Twin Towers began to emerge. I couldn’t help but be moved by the stories, in fact there were misty eyes all around the bar. Most chilling was the apparent calmness with which so many of these people seemed to be facing the certainty of their imminent death. It was not an easy night’s sleep.
September 12th-14th 2001—Los Angeles/Las Vegas
The next two days were spent glued to the television screen as further information emerged. Perhaps the only good news was that the death toll estimates were falling as the missing people were being steadily accounted for. Scenes of what was now being called Ground Zero looked unreal as smoke and charred, twisted metal littered lower Manhattan. There was little to do but sit and wait for the planes to start flying again. Selfishly I began to bemoan the fact that my 40th birthday would more than likely be spent alone in a hotel room. By the morning of September 13th there were rumours that some flights might start flying again the next day though it was unlikely that any would leave from Los Angeles. I spent a few hours online researching options and formulated a game plan. I booked seats on two flights out of Las Vegas and then another two out of Denver. I would keep driving east until a plane left or I made it back until Ohio. Thankfully I had not returned my rental car so I packed up and headed east across the Mojave Desert. It was about ninety degrees but the air-conditioned made it bearable as I listened to more heart-rending stories as I drove. On entering Las Vegas, I found a ghost town—there was even a tumbleweed blowing down the Strip. Very few cars were on the road. Most of the people who had been stranded in town were either at the airport or had started driving. I checked into the nearly empty Mandalay Bay Hotel not far from the airport. Walking through the casino that evening I could have picked my own table to play at never mind my own chair. I have never seen Vegas so quiet, even the few people who were around were understandably subdued.
One of my possible flights was a 6am nonstop flight to Cleveland on September 14th, so I made sure to be at the airport by 4am. I made someone’s day when I returned my rental car. I drove into the lot and there was not a car in sight. Outside the office was a line of over forty people all waiting patiently for the means to start the journey home. My car was gassed up and gone before I boarded the shuttle bus. The concourse was teeming with people trying to get home. There was not much activity at the check-in counters so I suspected flights were not going to be leaving anytime soon but on looking at the departure board, one flight, mine had the two words “On Time” next to it amid a sea of cancellations. I went to the counter and the agent informed me that if the FAA released the plane in time they expected the flight to leave on time. I tried not to get too excited as I happily passed through security. At the gate boarding was already starting and I claimed my seat, hoping but not really expecting to leave. The pilot came on the PA system and advised us of a twenty-minute hold; surely not an air traffic delay, there were no planes in the sky after all. Remarkably we pushed back from the gate, taxied to the end of the runway and took off for Cleveland, one of the very first planes to return to the skies after 9/11. I made it home with just a few hours to spare before the start of my birthday.
September 15th, 2001—Bath, Ohio
Turning forty is one of those birthdays, like your 21st, that is vested with some extra significance. Due to world events, mine was tinged with relief that I had made it this far, and sadness for those who just last weekend were enjoying life to the full. I feel guilty admitting it but I had a great day surrounded by family and friends. My feelings on passing this milestone can perhaps best be summed up by a quote from Winston Churchill when describing the victory at El Alamein: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
Ten years on - my 50th approaches - I just wish those 2,997 could have enjoyed another 10 years...
After a five month hiatus - I'm back blogging. Why the gap? The excuses are easy:
- lost interest - call it the blogging blues!
- started a new job with bosses, timesheets, conference calls, compulsory training programs, indecipherable benefits packages and thankfully a nice pay check every two weeks to make it all worthwhile!
- amazing two week trip to Berlin, Copenhagen, Oslo and Stockholm with my 16 year old son - Segways past the Reichstag, golf on the fjords, cycling through the streets of Copenhagen and lots of quality time on the road during our 1,200 mile drive
- high school graduation and college initiation for my 18-year old daughter - so proud of her but also regretting that my little girl is leaving Daddy's orbit at least some of the time
But here I am refreshed and recharged to share more pointless, aimless and probably humourless musings on life, the universe and anything else I come across.
Watch out the American Idiot rides again!
I cried on Saturday when I heard that Severiano Ballesteros had died. Why? After all he was only a sportsman (or as some would say, only a golfer and we all know they aren't really sportsmen).
The story starts on a Wednesday afternoon in 1976 at Royal Birkdale site of that year's Open Championship. Seve is 19, I am 14. Dad and I have driven the 60 miles from our home and I am attending my first Open Championship. Just days before, I broke 80 for the first time and my handicap is now 9! I can be confidently described as a golf addict, so this is a big deal.
The summer of '76 in England was a scorcher - most unusual in those pre-global warming days. In fact, a small fire broke out in the rough on the course during the first round as bone dry grass was ignited; but the real fire was on the course. Seve arrived on the scene, all swirling follow-through's, fierce grimaces and mega-watt smiles all wrapped up in a short game to die for. He is joint leader after the end of that first round and goes onto finish second. Johnny Miller, America's bleached blond surfer, won that week but it was the coming out parade for Seve and little did I know it--European golf.
My next encounter was in 1979 at Royal Lytham when Seve captured his first Open. As he putted out on the 18th green I was half way up the ladder to one of the famous yellow scoreboards that flank the 18th green at every Open peering over the top of the grandstand to witness his triumph. By now he was the best in Europe on his way to challenging Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson as the best in the world.
By 1984 he was a superstar about to realize every golfers dream - win the Open at St. Andrews. Newly graduated from university, I am in my first year of real work for a bank in London and engaged to be married. I take my two weeks off work and take my fiancee on a trip to Scotland. Being the romantic guy that I am we will spend the first week working on the scoreboards at the Open (remarkably the relationship survived this trauma, and in July we will celebrate 26 years of marriage).
Our digs for the week are a B&B in the village of Strathkinness about 3 miles outside St. Andrews. On Tuesday night we amble over to The Tavern, the only pub in the village. Its a beatiful evening and we sit with beers outside. A few minutes later another young engaged couple join us outside. I do a double take, surely not? But yes it is. Seve and his fiancee, Carmen are also enjoying an evening drink at the pub! I am shy but not that shy. I comment on the beautiful evening and Seve nods acknowledgement. I wish him luck and ask him if he's playing well. He responds with that fierce stare, "I play great!" No doubt about that - those eyes can't lie.
Next morning, I hit the bookmakers on the High Street in St. Andrews and place 20 pounds on Seve to win, the odds are about 10-1. Five days later I stand beside the Royal and Ancient clubhouse and pump my fists in mirror to Seve's famous celebration. Donna and I had a great week touring Scotland - all paid for by the Spanish Conquistador!
Fast forward, 22 years and its 2006 and the Open is at Royal Liverpool. Thirty years on from my first encounter with Seve I will have my last. Seve plays that year, not very well - time and a dodgy back have stolen his long game but the short game remains magical. Regardless of his play, he is adored every step of the way, he clearly enjoys it, no doubt helped by having one of his sons on the bag. Even better my son is with me, attending his first Open - there must be some symmetry in that. The week is all about Tiger for him - for me its seeing the close of my era in golf. Seve led the way and made golf very, very exciting for a 14 year old that Wednesday afternoon in 1976.
That's why I cried on Saturday morning.
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At 1.47pm Eastern Standard Time on 26th March 1993, Eleanor Louise arrived in the world at Akron City Hospital. She was American by birth, but English by parentage. How would that combination shape her future? Would it be gas or petrol, Elvis or The Beatles, Big Macs or fish and chips? Time would tell—though I suspected the Yanks may have the edge.
The sight of my first born arriving in the world was, as any parent knows, amazing. Unlike my father, who was playing golf when I appeared, I was there throughout and all I can say is that he missed out on a great experience. He begged to differ and didn’t regret it at all―apparently he played well that day. I can’t say his absence scarred my life although I do know that I wouldn’t have missed Eleanor’s arrival for anything.
This generational debate very nearly did not take place. While I was not on the golf course, much to my regret, I did nearly miss the event. The night before Eleanor made her appearance I flew back from New York to Cleveland. Being a Thursday with the prospect of a relatively peaceful day in the office ahead, I relaxed with a couple of gin and tonics on the flight; those free upgrades to first class do have their occasional compensations.
Eleanor was not due for another two weeks. We had been calling her Eleanor for sometime, as the choice of name had been made some weeks earlier in a very democratic manner. Donna and I had long ago agreed that I would choose names for any daughters we may be blessed with and she would have the same role for boys. The only caveat was that each of us had a right of veto over the other’s choices.
For quite a long time after the ultrasound indicated our first born was to be a girl she was tentatively named Emily with a choice of either Louise or Leah as a second name, however over the previous two months I had been listening to a lot of my old records and a song by the English folk rock group, Lindisfarne, called Lady Eleanor stuck in my mind, so Emily became Eleanor and Louise was confirmed as her second Christian name. Most of my American friends seem to think that another song, The Beatles, Eleanor Rigby, was the real inspiration and while I love the song the lyrics are a little depressing: “Eleanor Rigby, died in the church and was buried along with her name. Nobody came…” Not quite the sentiments I wanted associated with my little girl.
Anyway, I was feeling quite relaxed on the plane ride and not just because of the G&Ts. A run of thirteen weekly trips to Los Angeles and San Francisco had ended the previous week allowing me to be relatively close to home in the event that things started to happen early. I arrived home around 10.30pm and after a brief state of the pregnancy discussion, we retired to bed. Around one in the morning, I was woken by my wife’s delicate elbow being forcibly applied to my ribcage. She informed me that she had wet the bed. I confirmed this fact as my arm arced over in an attempt at a hug and landed in a wet patch between us. My initial reaction was that this was just one of the many pleasures of having a heavily pregnant wife. My senses were a little dulled for some reason so I was a little slow on the uptake. My darling wife, ever tolerant with my weaknesses, explained in short, simple words that she had not in fact peed in the bed but that the warm moist sensation my right hand was experiencing was in fact the initial indication that I was shortly to become a father, albeit an irresponsible one.
Her waters had broken but given my slightly numb state, my initial panicked reaction was acted out in slow motion. Anyone who has ever tried to put on a pair of trousers in a hurry at one o’clock in the morning while still asleep, can imagine the scene as I attempted to dress myself. Fortunately, Donna was well prepared and a model of coolness. Eventually I managed to clothe myself, find the previously prepared suitcase and guide my darling wife to the door. By this time I was fully awake and any semblance of impairment had disappeared. The realisation that my wife was on the verge of giving birth was akin to a massive injection of pure caffeine.
All the actions required to load the car, exit the garage and set a course for the hospital were preformed with speed and precision. However, all was not as smooth as it at first seemed. As we turned out of the driveway I noticed that the fuel gauge was awfully low, in fact the warning light came on the moment I started the engine. I vaguely remembered thinking to myself on the way home from the airport that I should stop and get some petrol but of course I didn’t.
The hospital was fifteen miles away and in my mind Eleanor was about to arrive at any moment―could I risk running out of petrol? Rapid mental calculations produced an alternate route to the hospital which passed a petrol station. I changed course and started praying that it would still be open at this time of night. At this point I was grateful for being in America. If this had been Britain our daughter may well have been born on the hard shoulder of the M1 as few petrol stations deign to serve their customers after midnight. As we neared the petrol station, at close to the speed limit, well maybe a few miles over, we had to negotiate a railway crossing that on numerous previous journeys had given every impression of being disused. Not on this night; as we approached, the crossing lights began flashing and the barriers started to descend. Here I was about to run out of petrol, with my still serene wife about to give birth to my child and the barriers are descending―what to do?
Without a moment’s hesitation the accelerator hit the floor and under the descending barrier we went mimicking Steve McQueen in Bullitt. I wonder what would have happened if the engine had started to sputter for want of petrol, as we made our crossing. Anyway we made it safely across the tracks and rounded the corner to see the welcoming light of the all-night BP service station. Yes it was a BP station owned by British Petroleum, thereby strengthening the Anglo-Saxon influence on this Yankee’s imminent birth. Now fully fuelled and clear of all railway crossings we cruised on to the hospital arriving at around 2am with just under twelve hours to spare.
Unlike Donna, my morning was punctuated by breakfast at McDonald’s, numerous cups of coffee and much sitting around twiddling my thumbs while trying to be supportive. Around lunchtime Eleanor finally decided it was nearly time to make her entrance. After putting Donna through all the appropriate motions, Eleanor Louise arrived in the world at 1.49pm. After a suitable period of spousal comfort, I made my excuses and celebrated becoming a father by walking down the road and having the biggest burger and fries I could find. Well this is America.
Extracted from Half The World Away by David A.J. Axson. Buy a signed copy today at Amazon.
Its been a rough few years for forecasters and 2011 is already proving challenging as the stoires of UPS and Home Depot illustrate.
For UPS the price of fuel is pretty important - so what was their forecast for 2011? In the December 27th issue of Fortune (less than 3 months ago), Bob Stoffel, Head of Supply Chain at UPS described the company's assumption:
"For the near term we're forecasting it will be around $78 a barrel right about where it is now. We think it will be pretty stable next year (2011)."
Today oil is north of $100 a barrel - so even UPS' 90-day forecast is way off. But UPS does not simply rely on a single assumption. Stoffel went on to say:
"But as part of our strategy, we do scenario planning, and we did a plan called Oil 200. It played out exactly like the recession."
While not an encouraging thought it does illustrate that today scenario planning is not simply a cool tool, its a management imperative.
Home Depot has long used a measure of investment in residential property as an aid to forecasting and for a long time it worked well. But not anymore. The company is dropping the measure and moving back to a broader GDP measure. As CFO Carol Tome commented, "''Housing's just not as important as it has been, it's just not that relevant.'' Think about that for a minute - housing is not relevant to forecasting a home improvement business! It really is a strange world out there. Read the full story here
After the ultimate schmooze fest at Davos last week, I decided to ponder what the world's top executives (political and commerical) thinking. Let's start with Russia's President, Dmitry Medvedev (he's clearly not the CEO!) who commented at Davos that, "Our task is to turn Russia into a more attractive place for the best minds in the world." A laudable goal that is not really supported by current actions.
An old quote from Hosni Mubarek caught my attention in light of the current situation in Egypt: "We are meeting here to put an end to this cycle (of violence), to put things in order and to put the wjeel of peace on the right track." I guess its time for him to practice what you preach!
As the world slowly heals from the financial crisis, Morgan Stanley CEO, commented in today's Wall Street Journal (31 Jan) on the differences between now and 2007, "We're very focused on making sure that whatever happens, whatever scenario, we have a fortress-type operation. I don't think that was the mindset in the mid-2000's anywhere on the Street" The only possible response to that is, "You don't say!"
Hindsight is clearly 20/20 as Bob Stoffel, SVP at UPS described in Fortune (12/27/2010), "...as part of our strategy, we do scenario planning, and we did a plan called Oil 200. It played out exactly like the recession. The same things we expected to see in the Oil 200 world, we saw with the global recession." Well that's comforting to now isn't it? Of course Oil $200 is a bit out there, after all UPS' own forecast have it pegged at $78 barrel (today's price $88).
To end let's look at two of GM's leaders, one from the Golden Age and one from the Government Age. First, Dan Akerson who seems to be doing an ok job as Mayor of Detroit, sorry CEO of GM. However I was a little concerned by a report in the WSJ (Jan8-9, 2011) that at a 2009 board meeting before his elevation, he commented on GM commercials that promoted fuel effiiciency thus, "Nobody cares about fuel economy. When its empty, you fill it, period. Why are we advertising something nobody cares about?" Good to see he's in touch with his customers!
I leave the final word to the great Alfred P Sloan who in a memo to his managers dated May 10, 1926 said, "It is always pleasing, of course, to do better than one stated and it is well to be conservative in all these things but the arbitrary changing of figures simply to show a better result than forecast...discredit(s) the whole process which has contributed so much to our welfare." Its a shame his successors didn''t follow his advice.
More to come - watch this space!
Today we are overrun by analytics - it appears that analytics can solve everything including world hunger!
Don't get me wrong I am great fan of analysis - I like nothing more than curling up with a warm spreadsheet. However its important to remember that even sound analysis can be fatally flawed; this is where the story of New Coke comes in. Read on...
The battle for supremacy in the cola wars has been going on for decades as Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have slugged it out for every point of market share. This was a heavyweight fight that made the “Rumble in the Jungle” seem like a little local skirmish. By 1985, Coca-Cola, while still the overall market leader, had seen its market share decline for fifteen straight years. Pepsi had taken the lead in supermarket sales in the 1970s and was closing the gap in overall sales. If Pepsi could persuade one large customer, such as McDonald’s, to switch to its products, it would take the top spot.
Pepsi’s success came on the back of an aggressive marketing program that positioned Pepsi as the more youthful and cooler product for “The Pepsi Generation.” Integral to the marketing campaign was The Pepsi Challenge, a blind taste test that consistently demonstrated that customers preferred the taste of Pepsi to that of Coke. Obviously, Coca-Cola had a problem, but CEO Robert Goizueta had a solution—a new formula for Coke. A series of taste tests in twenty markets showed the new formula soundly beating Pepsi with the 99-year-old original Coke in last place. The potential market share gains from the new formula were estimated to be worth $760 million in additional sales. The data was convincing so the decision was made—New Coke would launch on April 23, 1985, replacing the iconic original.
As news of the launch leaked, Pepsi responded by taking out full-page newspaper advertisements with the mocking headline, “The Other Guy Just Blinked.”
Coke pressed on, but a backlash was building. Just weeks after the launch, the company had received 400,000 negative letters; call volume on Coke’s customer service hotline rose from 400 a day to 1,500 a day, and one angry customer formed a group called Old Cola Drinkers of America to campaign for the return of the original formula. In the face of mounting pressure and lackluster sales, the company announced on July 10 that the original formula would be brought back—only 79 days after New Coke’s launch. Coke admitted it was wrong; one of America’s most successful companies led by one of its most admired CEOs had the courage to admit that one of the biggest bets in consumer marketing history had spectacularly failed.
Rather than a marketing disaster as many have concluded, the story of New Coke illustrates two points:
1. 1. Sound analysis does not always lead to the correct decision. All the data supported the assertion that Coke was losing the cola wars to Pepsi and all the pre-launch data showed that consumers preferred New Coke to both Pepsi and Old Coke.
2. 2. Managers need to have the courage to admit that they made the wrong decision and take corrective action rapidly. Coke did this and by the end of 1985 original Coke was outselling Pepsi again, a position it has maintained ever since.
A wonderful review of the Management Mythbuster - thank you. Check out the full details at Amazon.
"It's as if he has been following me around for much of my career, transcribing surreal conversations and documenting odd thought processes which ultimately keep me motivated to always have an up to date resume. Seriously, Axson clearly has been there and heard that. His book alternates between telling the fictitious story of a company as its managers absurdly act out every management fad of the past several generations, followed with a good dose of sage advice and observations on how to avoid those pitfalls. It's frequently humorous and often funny in a very uncomfortable way, as it hits close to home for those of us who have lived through such experiences.
Many readers will no doubt agree with Axson's assertion that "all sense of perspective has disappeared from the practice of management. Common sense has been subjugated by nonsense.
Even as I write this review, I am engaged in activities of questionable value involving consultants, forecasting, strategic planning, etc., so the book serves as a cautionary tale and reminder for the need to step away from the kool-aid and smell the coffee so to speak. Most business books ultimately disappoint me, but The Management Mythbuster is an excellent read, providing a bit of catharsis for anyone who may have become just a little cynical over the years, even though you know in your heart that you are your employer's most valuable asset."
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